Will 2024 be a bull or bear market?
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
Which brings us to one of the best things about 2024: Because it is a US election year, politicians almost certainly won't throw up new roadblocks to stocks' rise. Election years tend to be bullish. The S&P 500's average election year return since 1925 is 11.4%, with returns up 83.3% of the time.
The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).
Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data. That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.
The stock market's safety net will be bigger than ever in 2025 as share buybacks rebound, Goldman Sachs said. Share repurchases saw their second-largest drop since the Global Financial Crisis in 2023, but are poised to stage a two-year recovery.
Stocks and bonds deliver positive returns and cash underperforms both as the Fed pivots to rate cuts. Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024.
1. Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023. I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
Key Takeaways: Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.
How will the Dow perform in 2024?
The bank's analysts give a positive forecast for the Dow Jones exchange rate in 2024. In their opinion, index quotes will increase by 10% to $40,000 in 2024. If the US economy avoids recession, growth could reach up to 19%. This scenario is more likely due to cooling inflation and stable GDP growth.
For the full year ending in December, earnings are projected to rise 35% year over year to $20.07 per share, while full-year revenue of $158.48 billion would rise 17.5% year over year.
If history is a guide, the chances that the S&P 500 will perform well during the rest of 2024 look pretty good. There are other reasons to expect stocks to continue their winning ways too. The U.S. economy appears to be relatively strong. Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 3.4%.
| Name | Book Value | 1 Year (%) |
|---|---|---|
| J Taparia Projects | ₹ 18.56 | 345.61% |
| Rasi Electrodes | ₹ 9.45 | 52.90% |
| 3P Land Holdings | ₹ 37.75 | 24.68% |
| SAL Steel | ₹ 4.87 | 110.65% |
Feb 18 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 (. SPX) , opens new tab to 5,200, reflecting roughly a 4% upside from current levels, citing an improved earnings outlook for the index companies.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
Here's the Growth Stock to Buy Right Now. The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into a bear market in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss for the year.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
The shift up in portfolio returns reflects a 7.4% expected annualized return for U.S. stocks in the next 10 years, up from the 6.5% assumption made last year.
Analysts see big potential for these drugs over the next 12 months. Fiverr International (FVRR): FVRR to could double as freelancing grows. Lithium Americas (LAC): The rebound of lithium prices make LAC strong.
Will the Dow ever hit $50,000?
To reach 50,000, the Dow wouldn't even need to double — it would require a 31.6% gain from the 38,000 level. If the DJIA companies only earned the current 1.77% dividend yield, it would take 15.6 years for the index to reach the 50,000 mark.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid- to low-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
- Stocks.
- Real Estate.
- Private Credit.
- Junk Bonds.
- Index Funds.
- Buying a Business.
- High-End Art or Other Collectables.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
