What is the credit market outlook for 2024?
In 2024 we remain positive on the credit market, anticipating strong total returns and continued demand from yield and duration buyers. Investors are looking to add high-quality duration and to move away from short-maturity investment solutions, made less attractive by major central banks' expected interest rate cuts.
Significant growth of bond debt around the world
Total OECD government bond debt is projected to increase to USD 56 trillion in 2024, an increase of USD 30 trillion compared to 2008.
The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).
2024 could extend the trend of rewarding years in direct lending strategies, in our view. While higher-for-longer interest rates, slower growth and stickier inflation may present challenges for some borrowers, we don't expect credit losses to become unhinged.
We expect additional credit deterioration in 2024, largely at the lower end of the ratings scale, where close to 40% of credits are at risk of downgrades.
The 2024–25 Outlook
We expect growth to rebound to a 2.0 percent pace by 2025Q1 and stay in that range through yearend. On a Q4-to-Q4 basis, real GDP grows by 1.8 percent during 2024 and 2.2 percent during 2025.
U.S. publicly held debt 2013-2024
In March 2024, the public debt of the United States was around 34.59 trillion U.S. dollars, almost two trillion more than in July when it was around 32.6 trillion U.S. dollars.
The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.
With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.
S&P 500 YEAR-END FORECAST YET. Both Capital Economics and Yardeni Research have recently floated similar scenarios. Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni has a 5,400 target for the end of 2024 but sees the benchmark hitting 6,000 in 2025 and 6,500 in 2026.
What will loan interest rates be in 2024?
30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 6.1% and 6.4% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
While McBride had expected mortgage rates to fall to 5.75 percent by late 2024, the new economic reality means they're likely to hover in the range of 6.25 percent to 6.4 percent by the end of the year, he says.
However, the Federal Reserve maintains their projection that there will be three interest rate cuts in 2024, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Our new comparison tool — in partnership with Bankrate — will help you find the best rates available now.
Economists predict another year of slow growth around the world in 2024. While the risk of a global recession is lower in the year ahead, two G7 economies dipped into recession at the end of 2023.
Credit risk prediction is a crucial task for financial institutions. The technological advancements in machine learning, coupled with the availability of data and computing power, has given rise to more credit risk prediction models in financial institutions.
The 2007–2008 financial crisis, or Global Economic Crisis (GEC), was the most severe worldwide economic crisis since the Great Depression.
WASHINGTON, DC – Economic growth remains likely to decelerate and ultimately result in a mild recession in 2024, followed by a return to growth in 2025, according to the November 2023 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a slight decline in global growth to 2.9% in 2024, down from 3% in 2023. However, much of this growth is made up of emerging markets activity, while growth in advanced economies remains tepid.
A recession is still in the cards for the US, according to BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim. Ibrahim predicted a downturn would come sometime before early 2025. Once the economy slips into a contraction, stocks could plunge 26%, she warned.
In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.
What country has the highest debt?
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
Russia National Government Debt reached 281.6 USD bn in Feb 2024, compared with 287.8 USD bn in the previous month. Russia National Government Debt data is updated monthly, available from May 2009 to Feb 2024. The data reached an all-time high of 384.2 USD bn in Jun 2022 and a record low of 86.1 USD bn in May 2009.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
