The Orioles have been mediocre for two months now.
Depending on where you want to set the line of demarcation, you could argue they’ve been slightly worse than that.
But unquestionably mediocre.
Yes, what they accomplished over the first three months of the season still leaves them in great position to qualify for the playoffs with Baseball Reference, ESPN, and FanGraphs all tracking their postseason probability at 98% or better entering the weekend. While the Orioles haven’t won three games in a row since mid-July, they also haven’t lost three straight since July 21-24, further encapsulating the mediocrity. Even if continuing on a path similar to the last two months, Baltimore will find itself in the postseason field because this is an American League seemingly devoid of sustained greatness.
Injuries have decimated the Orioles’ pitching staff and subtracted one of the club’s best right-handed hitters in All-Star infielder Jordan Westburg, but all is not lost with right-hander Zach Eflin set to return as early as Sunday and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez still aiming to return later in September. The same goes for right-hander Jacob Webb — who is beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk and could return next week — and lefty Danny Coulombe, two valuable pieces for a bullpen that’s been better of late but still trying to find its footing and identity. Westburg remains in the early stages of baseball activity with a target to return in late September.
There’s certainly October upside to gain if the Orioles manage to stay afloat, and there’s really no excuse not to with their next six games coming against two of baseball’s three worst teams and 12 of the 15 contests after that against clubs within a game of the .500 mark entering Friday. When 69-65 Boston is the best team you’re going to encounter over the next 3 1/2 weeks, you can’t complain about the schedule.
There’s plenty of criticism to go around in regards to the overall mediocrity and very few are absolved of blame, but the series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers highlighted an increasing concern for the Orioles and their October hopes.
Their stars really need to start performing like stars again.
After winning the opener at Dodger Stadium thanks to a clutch Ramon Urias home run and 4 2/3 scoreless innings from the bullpen, the Orioles should have been in great position to take the series with their ace taking the hill on Wednesday night. But Corbin Burnes instead continued a nightmare August by allowing six runs in a 6-4 defeat.
Yes, the box score will tell you only one of those runs was earned and his defense failed him at a couple points, but it was also the latest example of Burnes unraveling rather than bearing down at a critical moment. A .341 batting average allowed on balls in play reflects Burnes being a victim of bad luck in August as well, but his 7.36 ERA ranks fourth worst in the majors among pitchers completing at least 20 innings this month. Burnes logged only one quality start this month while allowing four or more earned runs three times, which includes a career-worst eight in the Aug. 16 loss to the Red Sox and excludes Wednesday’s outing.
That his struggles have come at a time when Eflin and Rodriguez are sidelined magnifies them even more.
Putting any thoughts about his pending free agency aside, Burnes needs to get back on track if the Orioles want any shot at winning the AL East or making noise in October. The 29-year-old may have labeled Wednesday’s outing “a step in the right direction,” but completely absolving him of allowing four runs in the third inning because of an Urias fielding error that came with one out and nobody on isn’t exactly ace-like esteem, especially when Burnes does so little to control the running game.
Someone who started the All-Star Game is becoming an afterthought in the AL Cy Young race.
Of course, Burnes wasn’t the only Orioles star who struggled at Dodger Stadium as All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson went 1-for-12 with four strikeouts over the three games. One of those came Thursday night with the bases loaded and Baltimore trailing by two in the seventh inning, a golden opportunity for your best player to tie the game or better. Since a mid-August power surge that included four home runs in five games, Henderson has gone 5-for-37 with one extra-base hit over the last 10 contests.
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To be clear, some critiques of Henderson’s second half have been over the top as he’s still posted a .749 on-base plus slugging percentage since the All-Star break, which remains above average in a season in which offense is depressed across the league. But we’re talking about someone who clubbed 28 homers with a .956 OPS and was neck and neck with Aaron Judge in the AL MVP race in the first half. Henderson’s defense has also been erratic as his 20th error of the season added an unearned run to Burnes’ tab on Wednesday night.
The 23-year-old Henderson would be the first to tell you that he needs to pick up his play the rest of the way.
That brings us to Adley Rutschman. Going 2-for-12 with two walks against the Dodgers didn’t stand out in any particular negative way, but that’s been part of the problem for two months now with few encouraging signs of a turnaround.
July was easily the worst month of Rutschman’s career as he batted .132 with a .482 OPS, but with two days to go, August is shaping up to be the third- or fourth-worst month of his career with a .244 average and a .655 OPS. Since July 1, Rutschman ranks among the bottom 10 qualified hitters in the majors in batting average (.188), slugging percentage (.292), weighted on-base average (.252), and weighted runs created (62).
The criticism over the first two months of 2024 was that the All-Star catcher wasn’t walking nearly as much as he had in the past, but Rutschman was hitting for more power with his revamped approach. But in August, he hasn’t hit for power — one homer and six extra-base hits overall — or drawn many walks with six in 88 plate appearances.
This isn’t just a slump; this is an All-Star talent known for being a model of consistency at the plate performing at a replacement level for two months now. It’s enough to make one wonder if the lower back discomfort that briefly sidelined him a couple weeks ago or another undisclosed injury is contributing to him struggling to this extent for this long.
Make no mistake, Burnes, Henderson, and Rutschman are major reasons why the Orioles were as good as they were in the first half and far from their only problems at the moment. No one can be expected to be perfect every game or to make up for everything else that’s gone awry in a team sport where plenty of failure is already baked in for even the best players.But high expectations come with accolades, and these three are deserving of both.
Your stars need to be stars when you need them most, and the Orioles haven’t been receiving that from their two young pillars and their ace, a major reason why they’ve been stuck in neutral.
If that doesn’t change, the mediocrity will surely linger into September as optimism for October only wanes.
