MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for June 26 | FantasyLabs (2024)

TheFantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

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Real-time DFS models & projections

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Kevin Kiermaier ($2,200): Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays

The bargain options at the top of the model projections are a bit weak on the short main slate, but Kevin Kiermaier is an interesting option for lineups. The 34-year-old veteran has seen action in 59 games this season with a positive Plus/Minus rating over the last month.

Kiermaier is batting .201/.247/.299 on the season with two home runs and 12 RBI as a part-time player. He has a .276 xSLG and needs to cut down on the strikeouts with a 32.3 K%. He coming off one of his best performances of the season with three hits in game two of their series yesterday.

The model is banking on a solid matchup against Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford. The righty is 3-7 but does have a respectable 3.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Luis Gil ($10,300) at New York Mets

Fantasy players will have a lot to pay attention to with the Subway Series tonight as Luis Gil takes the mound. He is by far the highest ceiling projection and pitching salary on the main slate. He has earned that stature with an incredible 9-2 start to the year.

Through 15 starts, Gil ranks first in the American League with a .164 batting average against and eighth with a 2.77 ERA. He is coming off his worst start of the season after allowing seven runs in 1.1 innings to the Orioles on June 20.

Using PlateIQ, the projected Mets lineup has a .162 ISO and .323 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low park rating from both sides of the plate and low hit and home run projections.

Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,500) at Boston Red Sox

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sits just behind Shohei Ohtani on the ceiling projections but comes at a substantial salary discount. He is on a tear with three straight 20+ point DraftKings games. He has two home runs, seven hits, and nine RBI in that stretch.

This season, Guerrero Jr. is batting .288/.368/.435 with 10 home runs and 40 RBI. He has one of the better hard-hit % in the league (59.1) and boosts his floor with an 11.0 BB%.

Like Kevin Kiermaier, the Blue Jays have a strong matchup against Kutter Crawford. The model likes Guerrero Jr. to improve on his +2.86 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Gavin Stone ($8,800) at Chicago White Sox

On a short slate, Gavin Stone stands out as a value option with high upside if he can add a few more strikeouts to his repertoire.

The Dodgers right-hander is 8-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through 14 starts. He is effective in fooling hitters with a 32.5 hard hit % but has a low 19.1 K%. He reached seven strikeouts in his last outing for the second time this season.

Stone gets a prime matchup with the White Sox on the main slate. Chicago has just three high wOBA and high ISO hitters, along with four batters striking out above a 30.0% rate.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Jarren Duran ($5,500) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Boston is a model favorite tonight with their elevated implied run total against the Blue Jays. Expectations are high for Jarren Duran as he continues lighting it up at the plate with a +5.00 average Plus/Minus in his last 10 games.

Duran has four 17+ DraftKings point games in his last six, with two home runs and two doubles in that stretch. He may only have seven long bombs on the season, but Duran leads the American League with 10 triples and 23 doubles on the season.

With his versatility at the plate and on the base paths, Duran is a great lineup option against Yariel Rodriguez. The Toronto righty is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in five starts.

Willi Castro ($4,400) at Arizona Diamondbacks

Another versatile player, Willi Castro, is not too far behind Duran in doubles and triples. He is batting .271/.355/.440 on the season with six home runs and 24 RBI.

The Twins shortstop has a .350 wOBA and .402 xSLG. He has 20+ DraftKings point upside, with three such results so far in June. He is on a seven-game hit streak but has only tallied a RBI in two out of his last 11 games.

Ryne Nelson gets the nod for Arizona tonight and sets up a great matchup for Castro. Nelson is 5-5 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He only strikes out hitters at a 15.1% clip and allows a .477 xSLG.

TheFantasyLabs MLB Player Modelshouse numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find ourTrends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize ourLineup Optimizerto effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use ourLineup Builderif you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Become a PRO Member

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projectedPlus/Minusmetric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Kevin Kiermaier ($2,200): Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays

The bargain options at the top of the model projections are a bit weak on the short main slate, but Kevin Kiermaier is an interesting option for lineups. The 34-year-old veteran has seen action in 59 games this season with a positive Plus/Minus rating over the last month.

Kiermaier is batting .201/.247/.299 on the season with two home runs and 12 RBI as a part-time player. He has a .276 xSLG and needs to cut down on the strikeouts with a 32.3 K%. He coming off one of his best performances of the season with three hits in game two of their series yesterday.

The model is banking on a solid matchup against Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford. The righty is 3-7 but does have a respectable 3.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Luis Gil ($10,300) at New York Mets

Fantasy players will have a lot to pay attention to with the Subway Series tonight as Luis Gil takes the mound. He is by far the highest ceiling projection and pitching salary on the main slate. He has earned that stature with an incredible 9-2 start to the year.

Through 15 starts, Gil ranks first in the American League with a .164 batting average against and eighth with a 2.77 ERA. He is coming off his worst start of the season after allowing seven runs in 1.1 innings to the Orioles on June 20.

Using PlateIQ, the projected Mets lineup has a .162 ISO and .323 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low park rating from both sides of the plate and low hit and home run projections.

Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,500) at Boston Red Sox

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sits just behind Shohei Ohtani on the ceiling projections but comes at a substantial salary discount. He is on a tear with three straight 20+ point DraftKings games. He has two home runs, seven hits, and nine RBI in that stretch.

This season, Guerrero Jr. is batting .288/.368/.435 with 10 home runs and 40 RBI. He has one of the better hard-hit % in the league (59.1) and boosts his floor with an 11.0 BB%.

Like Kevin Kiermaier, the Blue Jays have a strong matchup against Kutter Crawford. The model likes Guerrero Jr. to improve on his +2.86 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being aFantasyLabs Pro memberis the option to purchase additional items in theFantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections isTHE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or createaggregate projectionswithin our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Gavin Stone ($8,800) at Chicago White Sox

On a short slate, Gavin Stone stands out as a value option with high upside if he can add a few more strikeouts to his repertoire.

The Dodgers right-hander is 8-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through 14 starts. He is effective in fooling hitters with a 32.5 hard hit % but has a low 19.1 K%. He reached seven strikeouts in his last outing for the second time this season.

Stone gets a prime matchup with the White Sox on the main slate. Chicago has just three high wOBA and high ISO hitters, along with four batters striking out above a 30.0% rate.

Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Jarren Duran ($5,500) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Boston is a model favorite tonight with their elevated implied run total against the Blue Jays. Expectations are high for Jarren Duran as he continues lighting it up at the plate with a +5.00 average Plus/Minus in his last 10 games.

Duran has four 17+ DraftKings point games in his last six, with two home runs and two doubles in that stretch. He may only have seven long bombs on the season, but Duran leads the American League with 10 triples and 23 doubles on the season.

With his versatility at the plate and on the base paths, Duran is a great lineup option against Yariel Rodriguez. The Toronto righty is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in five starts.

Willi Castro ($4,400) at Arizona Diamondbacks

Another versatile player, Willi Castro, is not too far behind Duran in doubles and triples. He is batting .271/.355/.440 on the season with six home runs and 24 RBI.

The Twins shortstop has a .350 wOBA and .402 xSLG. He has 20+ DraftKings point upside, with three such results so far in June. He is on a seven-game hit streak but has only tallied a RBI in two out of his last 11 games.

Ryne Nelson gets the nod for Arizona tonight and sets up a great matchup for Castro. Nelson is 5-5 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He only strikes out hitters at a 15.1% clip and allows a .477 xSLG.

Ben Strunk writes MLB and NFL DFS content for FantasyLabs. He earned bachelor's degrees in journalism and sports management at Ohio University and a masters in sport management from the University of Florida. Strunk has written for a variety of media outlets, including The Gainesville Sun over his career. He has more than a decade of fantasy sports experience and aims to provide data-driven analysis in a clear, efficient voice. Outside of fantasy sports, Strunk is a long time sports card collector, high school sports official, and ultrarunner.